Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis: A Review of Research Gaps

Behrens J., Løvholt F., Jalayer F., Lorito S., Salgado-Gálvez M. A., Sørensen M., ...More

Frontiers in Earth Science, vol.9, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Review
  • Volume: 9
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.3389/feart.2021.628772
  • Journal Name: Frontiers in Earth Science
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Directory of Open Access Journals
  • Keywords: tsunami, probabilistic method, hazard, risk, research gap, SUBDUCTION-ZONE EARTHQUAKES, LARGE SUBMARINE LANDSLIDES, SHEAR-BAND PROPAGATION, STRONG GROUND MOTION, 2011 TOHOKU, SCALING RELATIONS, TRIANGULAR DISLOCATION, SOCIAL VULNERABILITY, SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS, FRAGILITY FUNCTIONS
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

© Copyright © 2021 Behrens, Løvholt, Jalayer, Lorito, Salgado-Gálvez, Sørensen, Abadie, Aguirre-Ayerbe, Aniel-Quiroga, Babeyko, Baiguera, Basili, Belliazzi, Grezio, Johnson, Murphy, Paris, Rafliana, De Risi, Rossetto, Selva, Taroni, Del Zoppo, Armigliato, Bureš, Cech, Cecioni, Christodoulides, Davies, Dias, Bayraktar, González, Gritsevich, Guillas, Harbitz, Kânoǧlu, Macías, Papadopoulos, Polet, Romano, Salamon, Scala, Stepinac, Tappin, Thio, Tonini, Triantafyllou, Ulrich, Varini, Volpe and Vyhmeister.Tsunamis are unpredictable and infrequent but potentially large impact natural disasters. To prepare, mitigate and prevent losses from tsunamis, probabilistic hazard and risk analysis methods have been developed and have proved useful. However, large gaps and uncertainties still exist and many steps in the assessment methods lack information, theoretical foundation, or commonly accepted methods. Moreover, applied methods have very different levels of maturity, from already advanced probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis for earthquake sources, to less mature probabilistic risk analysis. In this review we give an overview of the current state of probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. Identifying research gaps, we offer suggestions for future research directions. An extensive literature list allows for branching into diverse aspects of this scientific approach.