A Fuzzy-Fault Tree and Simulation-Based Approach for Evaluating Uncertainties in Haul Road Quality


Creative Commons License

Topal S. N., Gölbaşı O.

THE 29TH INTERNATIONAL MINING CONGRESS AND EXHIBITION OF TÜRKİYE (IMCET 2025), Antalya, Turkey, 11 - 14 November 2025, pp.770-778, (Full Text)

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • City: Antalya
  • Country: Turkey
  • Page Numbers: pp.770-778
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Haul roads are vital components of surface mining operations, directly impacting safety, production

efficiency, and operational continuity. However, these roads are often constructed based on practical experience rather than standardized methodologies, increasing vulnerability to failures under uncertain conditions. This study aims to construct a systematic framework to evaluate quality of haul roads in surface mines, called Mine Road Quality Index (MRQI).



The research focuses on identifying and evaluating seventeen critical uncertainties categorized under five domains: structural design, functional design, management, geometric design, and geology. To quantify these uncertainties, an expert survey was designed. The responses were evaluated linguistically and then converted into fuzzy numbers. These fuzzy values were further processed using a fuzzy logic integrated fault tree analysis (FFTA), enabling prioritization of uncertainty factors based on failure probability and criticality index. The developed model was tested using a hypothetical dataset to highlight how the model can be utilized. The results revealed that uncertainties such as presence of clay were most likely to induce road failures. The FFTA output was then embedded into a discrete event simulation (DES) model to simulate dynamic failure occurrences over time. The outcomes of this hybrid approach provide promising groundwork for future development of a standardized road quality index for surface mines.