Atmospheric Model Component of an Atmospheric-Hydrological Model-Based Real-Time Flood Forecasting System for the Klzlllrmak River Basin in Turkey

Ishida K., Ercan A., Chen R., Ohara N., Kavvas M., Daǧdeviren M., ...More

16th World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2016: Hydraulics and Waterways and Hydro-Climate/Climate Change, Florida, United States Of America, 22 - 26 May 2016, pp.618-625 identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • Doi Number: 10.1061/9780784479872.063
  • City: Florida
  • Country: United States Of America
  • Page Numbers: pp.618-625
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: No


A real-time flood forecasting system was developed over the Klzlllrmak river basin (KRB) in Turkey by means of a physically-based atmospheric-hydrological model. The real-time flood forecasting system utilizes the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and the WRF data assimilation (WRFDA) system as its atmospheric component. Real-time global atmospheric forecasting data are obtained from global forecast system (GFS) operated by the national centers for environmental prediction (NCEP). The real-time global atmospheric forecasting data are utilized as initial and boundary conditions of the atmospheric component. The atmospheric component synthesizes real-time upper-air sounding data and ground observations into the initial conditions by the three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system. After the assimilation, the atmospheric component dynamically downscales the real-time global atmospheric forecasting data into 4 km horizontal resolution and hourly temporal resolution. The real-time flood forecasting system is in operation now. Some preliminary forecasted results by the atmospheric component are shown in this presentation.