Assessment Study of 21st Century Drought Conditions at Shasta Dam Based on Dynamically Projected Water Supply and Water Demand

Trinh T., Ishida K., Kavvas M., Ercan A., Carr K.

17th World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2017, California, United States Of America, 21 - 25 May 2017, pp.421-426 identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • Doi Number: 10.1061/9780784480618.042
  • City: California
  • Country: United States Of America
  • Page Numbers: pp.421-426
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: No


Along with socioeconomic developments, and population increase, natural disasters around the world have recently increased the awareness of harmful impacts they cause. Among natural disasters, drought is of great interest to scientists due to extraordinary diversity of their severity and duration. Motivated by developing a potential approach to investigate future possible droughts in a probabilistic manner based on climate change projections, a methodology to consider thirteen future climate projections based on four emission scenarios to characterize droughts is presented. The proposed approach uses a hydro-climate model (watershed environmental hydrology hydro-climate model; WEHY-HCM) to generate equally likely thirteen future water supply projections. The water supply projections were compared to current water demand for detection of drought events and estimation of drought properties. The procedure was applied to Shasta Dam Watershed to analyze drought conditions at the watershed outlet, Shasta Dam. The results suggest an increasing water scarcity at Shasta Dam with severer and longer future drought events. This study presents an advantage of the future probabilistic structure in drought analysis by providing drought properties of the 100-year and 200-year return periods without resorting to any extrapolation of the frequency curve.