The impact of variable renewable energy technologies on electricity markets: An analysis of the Turkish balancing market

Sirin S. M., YILMAZ B. N.

Energy Policy, vol.151, 2021 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 151
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112093
  • Journal Name: Energy Policy
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, International Bibliography of Social Sciences, PASCAL, ABI/INFORM, Aerospace Database, Business Source Elite, Business Source Premier, CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, EconLit, Environment Index, Greenfile, Index Islamicus, INSPEC, PAIS International, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: Quantile regression, Wind, Variable energy sources, Turkey, Balancing market
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes


© 2021 Elsevier LtdAs global investment in renewable energy technologies continue to trend upward, the effects of variable (intermittent) renewable energy technologies on power markets have created serious challenges for regulators and policymakers. The literature on the effects of these technologies on day-ahead markets has been well established; however, further research is required on intra-day and real-time (balancing) markets to understand how these technologies are changing electricity market dynamics. In this respect, this study aims to assess the effects of the variable renewable energy technologies (wind and run-of-river hydro) on Turkish balancing market prices using quantile regression. In addition, ordered logistic regression is used to evaluate how system imbalances are changing as a result of these technologies. Model results show that system marginal price declines as variable renewable energy generation increases. Moreover, there is a higher probability of positive imbalance as the positive difference between real-time and projected variable renewable energy generation increases. Overall, an increase in variable renewable energy generation implies lower prices, but higher positive imbalances for the system. Hence, we recommend that Turkey should revise its current market design to incorporate the geographical and temporal generation characteristics of these technologies.