Forecasting Mortality Rates with a general Stochastic mortality Trend Model

Hasgül E., Kestel A. S., Yolcu Okur Y.

Communications Faculty of Science University of Ankara. Ser A1 Math. Stat, vol.69, no.1, pp.1-19, 2020 (Peer-Reviewed Journal) identifier


This paper presents a model, which can closely predict the future mortality rates whose efficiency is performed through the comparisons with respect to Lee-Carter and mortality trend models. This general model estimates the logit function of death rate in terms of general tendency of the mortality evolution independent of age, the mortality steepness, additional effects of childhood, youth and old age. Generalized linear model (GLM) is used to estimate the parameters. Moreover, the weighted least square (WLS) and random walk with drift (RWWD) methods are employed to project the future values of the parameters. In order to ensure the stability of the outputs and construct the confidence intervals, Monte Carlo simulation is used. The impact of the proposed model is implemented on USA, France, Italy, Japan and Israel mortality rates for both genders based on their ageing structure. A detailed comparison study is performed to illustrate modifi ed mortality rates on the net single premiums over mortality trend model and Lee-Carter model.