Probabilistic day-ahead system marginal price forecasting with ANN for the Turkish electricity market


OZGUNER E., TOR O. B. , GÜVEN A. N.

TURKISH JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCES, cilt.25, ss.4923-4935, 2017 (SCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi) identifier identifier

  • Cilt numarası: 25 Konu: 6
  • Basım Tarihi: 2017
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3906/elk-1612-206
  • Dergi Adı: TURKISH JOURNAL OF ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING AND COMPUTER SCIENCES
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.4923-4935

Özet

This study presents a system day-ahead hourly market clearing price forecasting tool for the day-ahead (DA) market and a system DA hourly marginal price forecasting tool for the real-time market of the Turkish electric market (TEM). These forecasting tools are developed based on artificial neural networks (ANNs). A series of historical price data of the TEM are utilized to model and optimize the ANN structure and to develop the ANN-based price forecasting tool. The methodology used to select the optimum ANN architecture provides the minimum daily mean absolute percentage error for both day-ahead market prices in the TEM. Performances of the proposed ANN model and the multiple linear regression model in forecasting the day-ahead hourly market clearing price are compared. The proposed ANN model is modified using volatility analysis and the Bienayme Chebyshev inequality in order to forecast system marginal prices probabilistically within a lower and an upper boundary.