Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption

Gungor B. O., Ertugrul H. M., SOYTAŞ U.

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, vol.166, 2021 (SSCI) identifier identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 166
  • Publication Date: 2021
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637
  • Journal Name: TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), INSPEC, Political Science Complete, Social services abstracts, Sociological abstracts, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts, DIALNET
  • Keywords: Gasoline consumption, ARIMA models, ARCH family models
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups.