Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption

Gungor B. O., Ertugrul H. M., SOYTAŞ U.

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE, cilt.166, 2021 (SSCI) identifier identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 166
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637
  • Dergi Adı: TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus, ABI/INFORM, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), INSPEC, Political Science Complete, Social services abstracts, Sociological abstracts, Worldwide Political Science Abstracts, DIALNET
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Gasoline consumption, ARIMA models, ARCH family models
  • Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups.