Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Assessment for East Anatolian Fault Zone Using Planar Fault Source Models

GÜLERCE Z., SHAH S. T., MENEKŞE A., Ozacar A. A., Kaymakci N., ÇETİN K. Ö.

BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA, vol.107, no.5, pp.2353-2366, 2017 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier


The objective of this article is to provide state-of-the-art probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment maps for the East Anatolian fault zone (EAFZ) based on planar seismic-source models and up-to-date ground-motion models. Development of fault-based seismic-source models requires the definition of source geometry in terms of fault length, fault width, fault-plane angles, and segmentation points for each segment of the EAFZ, building rupture systems that consider fault-to-fault ruptures and associating the observed seismicity with defined rupture systems. This complicated task was performed by compiling the seismotectonic characteristics of the EAFZ using available geological information and the instrumental earthquake catalogs of Turkey. Recently published global Next Generation Attenuation (NGA)-West2 groundmotion models (Bozorgnia et al., 2014) and Turkey-adjusted NGA-West1 models (Gulerce et al., 2016) are used in the ground-motion logic tree with equal weights. The results are presented in terms of the seismic-hazard maps for hazard levels in design codes for different spectral periods and for rock-like reference site conditions (V-S30 = 760 and 1100 m/s).