40. Yoneylem Arastrmas Endustri Muhendisligi Kongresi, 5 - 07 July 2021, pp.39
Due to the energy- and carbon-intensive characteristics, the transportation sector became a potential field for GHG emission mitigation researches. In Turkey, transportation sector has been responsible for the 16% of total GHG emissions (excluding LULUCF) and 22.6% of total fuel combustion emissions in 2015 due to rapid motorization and VKT increase rates in the last two decades. These high values are also parallel with the modal share distribution in Turkey, as road transportation is the dominant system in both passenger and freight transportation and caused almost 90% emission shares.
However, the transportation sector has many options to reduce emissions. In this study, GHG emission reduction potentials of mitigation actions are analyzed through technology choices and fuel substitutions using TIMES model that is a national level, bottom-up, and piece-wise linear representation of the Turkish transportation network. First, the baseline scenario constructed using TIMES model and then a set of GHG mitigation measures were adopted and analyzed separately for the emission reduction potentials and cost evaluations. The selected mitigation actions were; expanding intermodal/combined transport in intercity passenger transport, expanding electric vehicles in public transport, increasing the share of public transit in urban transport, expanding the usage of bicycle in urban transport, increasing the efficiency of fuel consumption, increasing the usage of alternative fuels (bioethanol, biogasoline, biodiesel, etc.), shifting freight transport from road dominancy to intermodal/combined transport.
The results of the quantitative comparison of selected mitigation actions showed that EV penetration up to 20% had the highest mitigation rate and the highest mitigation cost. The interesting finding was the emission reduction potential and low cost of increasing bicycle usage with the bike network connections to the urban rail system in major cities having existing and/or planned urban rail projects. Considering the average emission mitigation cost, the implementation of metro lines to metropolitan cities starting from 2025 was found as the best mitigation action among others.