Physics-Based Ground Motion Simulation of the February 6th 2023 Kahramanmaraş Earthquakes

Bilgen B., Askan Gündoğan A.

2nd Eurasia Geoscience Congress and Exhibition (EGCE2025), Antalya, Türkiye, 2 - 06 Kasım 2025, (Yayınlanmadı)

  • Yayın Türü: Bildiri / Yayınlanmadı
  • Basıldığı Şehir: Antalya
  • Basıldığı Ülke: Türkiye
  • Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Ground motion simulations are divided into two main categories: deterministic (physics-based) and stochastic simulations. Physics-based ground motion simulations involve numerical solutions of the wave propagation equation incorporating detailed velocity and source models. Although computationally expensive, physics-based methods are more accurate at simulating low-frequency ground motions than stochastic approaches. Thus, these models are particularly important in earthquake engineering applications since they accurately represent the longer periods. However, physics-based models, similar to stochastic solutions, should be validated before using them in earthquake engineering. This study aims to simulate the February 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş earthquakes using SPECFEM3D Cartesian, an opensource code that simulates three-dimensional seismic wave propagation with the spectral element method. The observed and simulated seismograms are compared via goodness-of-fit criteria in order to discuss the potential source, site, and path effects that introduce residuals in our simulations. The role of finite fault modelling, velocity profiles, and basin effects will be discussed as ways to increase simulation accuracy.