Using Impact Chain Analysis for Seismic Risk Reduction in Bucharest, Romania


Osaci-Costache G., Toma-Danila D., Armas I.

7th International Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology-ICEES, Antalya, Turkey, 6 - 10 November 2023, vol.401, pp.387-401, (Full Text) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Conference Paper / Full Text
  • Volume: 401
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/978-3-031-57357-6_34
  • City: Antalya
  • Country: Turkey
  • Page Numbers: pp.387-401
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: No

Abstract

Bucharest is one of Europe's most endangered capitals to earthquakes. The main seismic source affecting Bucharest is Vrancea, where earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 7 can occur, at depths between 60 and 180 km, but in a relatively confined space in terms of latitude and longitude. In the twentieth century, the city experienced two major damaging earthquakes from this source: in 1940 and 1977. Around 2-5 major earthquakes per century took place in the last 500 years. But lessons were not properly learned. The number of vulnerable buildings is nowadays highly still considerable and new challenges, among which extensive urban development, increased socio-economic vulnerability, transportation dependency, or pandemics are contributing to a multi-hazard and multi-risk context. In this paper, we present results of impact chain analysis, aggregated for two representative periods in Bucharest history: before and after 1900. For this analysis, we used multiple sources, forensic evaluation and also feedback from a dedicated meeting with Romanian first responders. Results highlight the potential of standardization (with the benefit of solving terminological issues) and the need to account for thresholds trigger mechanisms, interventions, and resilience. By constructing these impact chains, we aim to deliver stakeholders but also other researchers an important tool to ease the understanding of seismic risk and contribute to effective risk reduction policies.