How to model mutually exclusive events based on independent causal pathways in Bayesian network models

Fenton N., Neil M., Lagnado D., Marsh W., YET B., Constantinou A.

KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS, cilt.113, ss.39-50, 2016 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 113
  • Basım Tarihi: 2016
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1016/j.knosys.2016.09.012
  • Dergi Adı: KNOWLEDGE-BASED SYSTEMS
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.39-50
  • Anahtar Kelimeler: Bayesian networks, Mutually exclusive events, Causes, Uncertain reasoning, UNCERTAIN EVIDENCE, UPDATE
  • Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi Adresli: Hayır

Özet

We show that existing Bayesian network (BN) modelling techniques cannot capture the correct intuitive reasoning in the important case when a set of mutually exclusive events need to be modelled as separate nodes instead of states of a single node. A previously proposed 'solution', which introduces a simple constraint node that enforces mutual exclusivity, fails to preserve the prior probabilities of the events, while other proposed solutions involve major changes to the original model. We provide a novel and simple solution to this problem that works in all cases where the mutually exclusive nodes have no common ancestors. Our solution uses a special type of constraint and auxiliary node together with formulas for assigning their necessary conditional probability table values. The solution enforces mutual exclusivity between events and preserves their prior probabilities while leaving all original BN nodes unchanged. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.