Provincial Growth in Turkey: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

Akcagun P.

APPLIED SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND POLICY, vol.10, no.2, pp.271-299, 2017 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 10 Issue: 2
  • Publication Date: 2017
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s12061-016-9183-5
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.271-299
  • Keywords: Provincial growth, Spatial econometrics, Regional convergence, Turkey, REGIONAL CONVERGENCE, ECONOMIC-GROWTH, MODEL
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes


This study investigates the conditional income convergence hypotheses among provinces of Turkey over 1991-2009 period using a comprehensive set of spatial econometric models and two alternative definitions of spatial weights matrices. Particular attention is given to the alterations of the political and economic structures in the two sub-periods 1991-2001 and 2002-2009. We first consider non-spatial specification estimated by ordinary least squares and conduct tests to detect the evidence of spatiality in the data. The spatial econometric models are then estimated by maximum likelihood and compared to each other via likelihood ratio tests following a general-to-specific model selection procedure. The results indicate that different political and economic environments may lead not only to distinct convergence dynamics but also to dissimilar spatial relations. Spatial error model is the most appropriate specification for 1991-2009 and 2002-2009 periods whereas spatial cross-regressive model better characterizes the data for 1991-2001. The beta-convergence dynamics are observed in all periods, with noticeably higher rates for the post-2002 period.