Simulating shifting ecological states in a restored, shallow lake with multiple single-model ensembles: Lake Arreskov, Denmark


Andersen T. K. , Nielsen A., Jeppesen E., Bolding K., Johansson L. S. , Søndergaard M., ...More

Environmental Modelling and Software, vol.156, 2022 (Peer-Reviewed Journal) identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 156
  • Publication Date: 2022
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105501
  • Journal Name: Environmental Modelling and Software
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded, Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Applied Science & Technology Source, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), Biotechnology Research Abstracts, CAB Abstracts, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Computer & Applied Sciences, Environment Index, Geobase, Greenfile, INSPEC, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Public Affairs Index, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: Aquatic ecosystem modelling, General ocean turbulence model, Lake restoration, Shallow lake, Water ecosystems tool, Water quality

Abstract

© 2022 The AuthorsWe investigated the ability of the process-based, 1-dimensional hydrodynamic-ecosystem lake model GOTM-WET to reproduce the fluctuating dynamics and shifts between turbid and clear water states following restoration in temperate, shallow Lake Arreskov, Denmark. The lake model was calibrated on a comprehensive 12-year dataset with a multiple single-model ensemble approach to address model parameter and performance metric uncertainty. Compared to earlier modelling attempts on this lake, the GOTM-WET model, which enables simulation of water column hydrodynamics such as stratification events and two zooplankton groups, improved the simulation of the maximum chlorophyll a concentrations during cyanobacteria blooms and zooplankton dynamics. However, the timing of shifts between phytoplankton and submerged macrophytes dominance following fish removal was not well reproduced, although both states were simulated. We discuss potential improvements of the model to enhance the ability to simulate the effects of restoration on the food web and ecological states in this and similar lakes.