Burnt by the sun: disaggregating temperature’s current and future impact on mortality in the Turkish context

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Özen İ. C.

New Perspectives on Turkey, cilt.64, ss.1-37, 2021 (SSCI İndekslerine Giren Dergi)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 64
  • Basım Tarihi: 2021
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1017/npt.2021.6
  • Dergi Adı: New Perspectives on Turkey
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-37


Our study plans to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on different

critical Turkish health outcomes mainly to chart future developments and

to identify locations in Turkey that may be potential vulnerable hotspots.

The general structure of the temperature mortality function was estimated

with different fixed-level effects, with a specific focus on the mortality effect

of maximum apparent temperature. Regional models were fitted to pinpoint

the thresholds where the temperature–mortality relation changes, thus

investigating whether the thresholds are determined nationally or regionally.

The future patterns were estimated by extrapolating from future temperature

trends: analyzing possible future mortality trends under the restricting

assumption of minimal acclimation. Using the fixed effect regression

structure, social and developmental variables acting as heat effect modifiers

were also identified. In the largest dataset, the initial fixed effect regression

specification supports the hypothesis summarized by the U-shaped

relationship between temperature and mortality. This is a first corroboration

for Turkish climate and health research. In addition, intermediation effects

were substantiated for the level of urbanization and population density, and

the human development and health development within provinces. Regional

heterogeneity is substantiated by the mortality–temperature relationship and

the significant threshold deviations from the national average.