Our study plans to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on different
critical Turkish health outcomes mainly to chart future developments and
to identify locations in Turkey that may be potential vulnerable hotspots.
The general structure of the temperature mortality function was estimated
with different fixed-level effects, with a specific focus on the mortality effect
of maximum apparent temperature. Regional models were fitted to pinpoint
the thresholds where the temperature–mortality relation changes, thus
investigating whether the thresholds are determined nationally or regionally.
The future patterns were estimated by extrapolating from future temperature
trends: analyzing possible future mortality trends under the restricting
assumption of minimal acclimation. Using the fixed effect regression
structure, social and developmental variables acting as heat effect modifiers
were also identified. In the largest dataset, the initial fixed effect regression
specification supports the hypothesis summarized by the U-shaped
relationship between temperature and mortality. This is a first corroboration
for Turkish climate and health research. In addition, intermediation effects
were substantiated for the level of urbanization and population density, and
the human development and health development within provinces. Regional
heterogeneity is substantiated by the mortality–temperature relationship and
the significant threshold deviations from the national average.