Probabilistic models for the initiation of seismic soil liquefaction

Cetin K., Kiureghian A., Seed R.

STRUCTURAL SAFETY, vol.24, no.1, pp.67-82, 2002 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 24 Issue: 1
  • Publication Date: 2002
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/s0167-4730(02)00036-x
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.67-82
  • Keywords: Bayesian updating, model error, statistical uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, limit state models, choice-based sampling, liquefaction, liquefaction hazard
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes


A Bayesian framework for probabilistic assessment of the initiation of seismic soil liquefaction is described, A database, consisting of post-earthquake field observations of soil performance, in conjunction with in situ "index" test results is used for the development of probabilistically-based seismic soil liquefaction initiation correlations. The proposed stochastic model allows full and consistent representation of all relevant uncertainties. including (a) measurement/estimation errors, (b) model imperfection, (c) statistical uncertainty, and (d) inherent variabilities. Different sets of probabilistic liquefaction boundary curves are developed for the seismic soil liquefaction initiation hazard problem, representing various sources of uncertainty that are intrinsic to the problem. The resulting correlations represent a significant improvement over prior efforts, producing predictive relationships with enhanced accuracy and greatly reduced overall model uncertainty. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.