Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
41. Yöneylem Arastirmasive Endüstri Mühendisligi Ulusal Kongresi, Denizli, Türkiye, 26 Ekim - 28 Kasım 2022, ss.1
This paper studies whether Turkey can
meet its growing electricity demand by relying more on renewables, instead of
increasing the use of its local coal resources. Our quantitative analysis
proceeds in two stages. In the first stage, we provide projections for the
future electricity demand of Turkey through 2040 by using a dynamic balanced
panel data model of 41 countries. In the second stage, we develop linear
programming models to study realistic and reasonable scenarios representing
three probable future pathways to meet the econometrically estimated
electricity demand. The scenarios we run
in this study are business-as-usual (BAU), minimize GHGs (minGHG), and maximize
local resources (MaxLocal) simulations. A nuclear power program is included in
BAU while the latter scenarios omit the possible completion of the nuclear power
plant in the next ten to twelve years. The scenarios are compared in terms of
investment requirements. The model results of minGHG and MaxLocal both show
that the share of renewable generation should reach around two thirds of total
generation to satisfy the projected demand by 2040. Moreover, annual investment
requirement under minGHG is cheaper than of BAU, which corresponds to a 21-year
cumulative difference of around 4 billion in current US dollars. Therefore, a
secure low-carbon pathway with a lower investment requirement is possible for
Turkey without nuclear power or new coal plants, while also retiring most of the
existing coal plants.