Past, present and future global mangrove primary productivity

Chatting M., Al-Maslamani I., Walton M., Skov M. W., Kennedy H., Husrevoglu S., ...More

Science of the Total Environment, vol.957, 2024 (SCI-Expanded) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 957
  • Publication Date: 2024
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.177446
  • Journal Name: Science of the Total Environment
  • Journal Indexes: Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Scopus, Academic Search Premier, PASCAL, Aerospace Database, Analytical Abstracts, Aqualine, Aquatic Science & Fisheries Abstracts (ASFA), BIOSIS, Biotechnology Research Abstracts, CAB Abstracts, Chemical Abstracts Core, Chimica, Communication Abstracts, Compendex, Environment Index, Food Science & Technology Abstracts, Geobase, Greenfile, Metadex, Pollution Abstracts, Veterinary Science Database, Civil Engineering Abstracts
  • Keywords: Climate change, Global mangrove ecology, Mangrove litterfall, Mangrove productivity
  • Middle East Technical University Affiliated: Yes

Abstract

Mangrove productivity is crucial for the global carbon cycle, yet previous research has mostly focused on small-scale temporal changes or static global patterns, with limited investigation into global or regional temporal trends. This study used existing data on mangrove leaf litter to model mangrove Net Primary Productivity (NPP) on a monthly timescale from 1980 to 2094 across global regions defined by the Marine Ecoregions of the World framework. The models showed a slight global decrease in NPP of approximately 1.4 %, from 239.2 ± 87.6 Tg yr−1 (1980–1990) to 235.9 ± 81.9 Tg yr−1 (2085–2094). However, significant regional changes were identified, including substantial increases in NPP in the Southwest Australian Shelf (60.58 ± 97.9 %), the Warm Temperate Northeast Pacific (43.75 ± 65.7 %), and the Warm Temperate Northwest Pacific (31.55 ± 55.7 %), as well as decreases in Southeast Asian provinces like the Java Transitional (11.45 ± 6.2 %) and Western Coral Triangle (7.61 ± 9.6 %). These findings highlight previously unreported regional shifts in mangrove productivity, which could significantly impact carbon sequestration and the transfer of organic matter to adjacent ecosystems.