Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Seismically Induced Landslide for Bakacak-Duzce Region

Balal O., GÜLERCE Z.

12th International IAEG Congress, Torino, İtalya, 15 - 19 Eylül 2014, ss.681-684 identifier


Earthquake induced slope instability is considered as one of the major sources of the earthquake hazards, especially in the near fault regions. Simplified tools as Newmark's Sliding Block (NSB) analogy are commonly used to represent the slope stability during ground shaking since the outcome of this analogy is quantitative, larger NSB displacement values indicate higher seismic slope instability risk. Recently, empirical NSB displacement prediction models based on single or multiple ground motion intensity measures are proposed to analyze the slope instability hazard in a probabilistic manner. Within the contents of this study, the most compatible NSB displacement model with the regional ground motion characteristics is selected and incorporated into the vector-valued probabilistic seismic hazard assessment framework. The NSB displacement hazard curves are constructed for Asarsuyu Region where a large-scaled seismically induced landslide was observed during 1999 Duzce earthquake. The NSB displacement hazard results are compared with the dynamic analysis results that were conducted immediately after the earthquake and measured slope displacements.