Emerging market sovereign bond spreads, credit ratings and global financial crisis

ÖZMEN E., Yasar O. D.

ECONOMIC MODELLING, vol.59, pp.93-101, 2016 (Peer-Reviewed Journal) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 59
  • Publication Date: 2016
  • Doi Number: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.06.014
  • Journal Indexes: Social Sciences Citation Index, Scopus
  • Page Numbers: pp.93-101
  • Keywords: Common correlated effects, Emerging market economies, EMBI global spreads, Global financial crisis, Sovereign credit ratings, DEBT, COINTEGRATION, REGRESSION, INFERENCE, TESTS, RISK


This paper investigates the impacts of sovereign credit ratings and global financial conditions on.the evolution of EMBI Global (EMBIG) spreads for a panel of 23 developing countries by using daily data for the period between 1998 and 2012. To this end, we employ not only the conventional panel estimation procedures, but also the recent methods tackling with either cross-sectional dependence stemming from common global shocks or a potential endogeneity. Our results suggest that credit ratings along with global financial conditions re the main determinants of EMBIG spreads. The determinants of EMBIG spreads are not invariant to speculative and investment grade episodes and transitions between them. The recent global crisis changed the determinants of EMBIG spreads and led to credit ratings' impact to converge between speculative and investment grade countries. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.