IMPROVING MODELLING METHODS TO PRODUCE CLIMATE SERVICES FOR RESILIENT EUROPEAN SEAS AND COASTS IN A DECADAL TO MULTI-DECADAL HORIZON (RIVIERADE)

UFUK 2020 Projesi, ERC, Avrupa Araştırma Konseyi Destekli Proje, 2026 - 2029

RIVIERADE brings together the scientific communities geared into CORDEX and CMEMS and capitalises on their

rigorous and unique scientific experience to develop and implement a pre-operational and replicable multi-model

framework and protocols to produce, downscale, assess and deliver state-of-the-art decadal predictions and multi-

decadal projections of climate change and related impacts on marine ecosystems, covering the basin scale and the

coastal areas, up to, and including, development and demonstration of climate services. RIVIERADE will target three

European seas, the Baltic Sea (BAL), the Black Sea (BLK) and the Mediterranean Sea (MED), to produce data

and information for ocean health, sustainable blue economy, and coastal climate risks, downstreaming the data flow

from climate ensembles to coastal areas at different spatial resolutions and for selected areas, in a circular process

based on users and stakeholders engagement, co-design and assessment of innovative climate services.

The proposed methodology will employ high-resolution regional Earth Systems, ocean, and marine ecosystem

models of different complexity, impact models, and will include both traditional and new ocean modelling

approaches (e.g., coordinated multi-model ensembles, combined dynamical-machine learning downscaling, multiple

nesting and fully probabilistic impact modelling for quantitative risk assessment) with the final objective of

delivering: (i) coordinated and harmonised multi-model datasets of high-resolution ocean decadal and multi-decadal

scenario simulations for the three European target seas (ii) demonstrators of climate services at European sea basin

scale (3 seas), coastal regional (4 sub-regional areas) and local (4 local use cases) scales.