Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
KENTEL ERDOĞAN E. (Yürütücü), KARAKAYA G.
TÜBİTAK Uluslararası İkili İşbirliği Projesi, 2525 - Almanya Eğitim ve Araştırma Bakanlığı (BMBF) İkili İşbirliği Programı, 2021 - 2024
An agent-based model for flood risk mapping: Integration of urbanization and climate change impacts
i) Scientific/Technological Excellence: Climate
change (CC), population dynamics and the change in the environment we live in
affect our interaction with natural processes such as floods. Therefore, to
develop realistic and effective mitigation measures and adaptation strategies,
these potential future changes should be incorporated into the flood hazard and
risk analysis. Thus, this study aims to propose a new flood risk assessment
methodology (NFRAM) which embeds the following improvements: i) Flood hazard
and risk maps are used by the government agencies to develop mitigation
measures and adaptation strategies that are expected to be effective not only
for the present time but also in the future. However, ignoring CC impacts in
developing effective and sustainable strategies and in the decision-making
processes may result in unnecessary damages and costs, wasted investments and
risks to life in future. Hence, CC analysis and projected impacts on runoff
response of the basin will be integrated into the NFRAM; ii) Population
dynamics and the changes in the urban environment - which may affect future
flood risks - are not generally considered in assessing flood risks. However,
these changes affect future flood risks. Hence, expected changes in
urbanization (i.e., changes in population density, land cover, land use,
application of flood control measures etc.) will be integrated into the NFRAM;
iii) Traditionally, extreme events are assumed to be stationary in the design
of hydraulic structures. However, nonstationarity exists in the nature. Human interventions
in the river basin, land use and land cover changes and CC are the major causes
of the nonstationarity. Thus, in the NFRAM, nonstationary flood frequency
analysis will be conducted to evaluate impacts of changes in both climate and
urbanization. Flood hazard and risk maps generated from nonstationary analysis
will be compared with those of stationary ones; iv) Traditionally, flood hazard
and risk maps are prepared for individual flood events (for example 10-year,
200-year and 1000-year maps for high, medium and low likelihoods of flooding,
respectively). However, with this approach, representative annual average consequences
of flood hazard cannot be assessed. In the NFRAM, to represent combined risks
of various flood events, annual average flood risks will be calculated; v)
Behavior of stakeholders is not commonly taken into consideration in flood risk
management (FRM). Agent-based Modelling (ABM) will be used to integrate
stakeholders’ behavior to FRM as a component of the NFRAM.
ii) Methodology: In this project, CC impacts will be
considered through utilization of a number of Regional Climate Models’ (RCMs)
predictions (such as HIRHAM5 of DMI, CCLM4-8-17 of CLMcom, etc.). In the NFRAM,
flood risk analysis will be carried out for both stationary and nonstationary
cases. The nonstationary analyses will be conducted to evaluate CC and
urbanization impacts on flood risk using a time domain-urbanization
scenarios (TD-US) matrix. Moreover, ABM (Epstein and Axtell, 1996; Gilbert
and Troitzsch, 2005) which is an approach that formulates a system from the
perspectives of stakeholders and allows representing human behaviors as well as
their changes over time will be integrated into the NFRAM. A hydrologic model
followed by a 2D hydrodynamic model will be developed for the study area to
generate flood hazard maps. Finally, depth-damage curves will be used together
with flood hazard maps to obtain flood risk maps.
iii) Project Management: The
Turkish and German teams will be led by Dr.
Elcin Kentel and Dr. Holger Schüttrumpf, respectively. Dr. Kentel
will coordinate work packages (WPs) 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 and WP 5 will be coordinated
by Dr. Schüttrumpf. Since Dr. Schüttrumpf has many years of experience on flood
risk assessment (FRA) studies carried out in accordance with European Union
(EU) Flood Directive (2007/60/EC) and on FRA in urban areas of developing
countries (Kufeld et al., 2011), he will provide guidance in all WPs. He has
also an experience on flood mitigation measures, flood risk analysis and flood
damage estimation (Bachmann et al., 2012; Grimm et al., 2013; Sinaba et al.,
2013; Bachmann and Schüttrumpf, 2014).
iv) Importance of International Collaboration: As a part
of the Turkey’s program for alignment with EU directives, Republic of Turkey
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry – General Directorate of Water Management
has been preparing Flood Management Plans (FMPs) for the basins of Turkey since
2015. However, as mentioned above, there are some issues to be improved in the
existing methodology that is followed in developing these FMPs. Dr.
Schüttrumpf’s experience on FRA studies in urban areas will guide the Turkish team
to develop an NFRAM that is in line with both EU’s Flood Directive and most
recent literature.
v) Impact: Many regions of Turkey experience major losses in
terms of human life and economic damage due to floods. In the last decade, most
likely due to climate and urbanization changes, Adana and its surrounding
recently joined highly vulnerable flood regions of Turkey (DSİ, personnel
communication). The NFRAM will allow more realistic assessments of flood
hazards and risk in Turkey, which will lead to development of more effective
and sustainable flood mitigation measures and adaptation strategies. Adana and
its surrounding are selected as the study area; thus, this will be one of the
first detailed flood risk studies in the Adana region and will shed light on
the understanding of the recently increasing flood hazard and risks.
Utilization of ABM for FRA will be one of the first applications in Turkey.