Assessment of vulnerability to earthquake hazards using spatial multicriteria analysis: Odunpazarı, Eskişehir case study

Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Turkey

Approval Date: 2004




The aim of this thesis is to develop a GIS methodology to assess urban vulnerability to earthquake through a spatial analytical procedure in which vulnerability is taught of as a spatial decision problem. The main concepts within the framework is vulnerability assessment. In its typology, the defined technology is highly current, emergent and necessary for the local goverments. Considering the discussions on subsidiarity for local area services such a knowledge is hoped to prove the capacity of local goverments. First earthquake losses were estimated. Earthquake loss estimation activities can be categorized into two series of phases: pre-disaster phase; risk assessment, mitigation management post- disaster phase; emergency and rehabilitation management Two methods were used in estimating the primary damages and losses due to earthquake. In the first method spatial multicriteria analysis was performed to assign a vulnerability value to each building. As a second method SRAS(Seismic Risk Analysis Software) was used. Besides criteria for social risks, criteria for systematic vulnerability, which may influence the emergency response and management activities following the earthquake, were also considered. Criteria standardization, weighting and combining were accomplished by means of multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) methods, the theoretical background being based on the multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT). Expert knowledge based analysis was used and also three different earthquake scenarios about Odunpazari were run on SRAS. After the aggregation of the vulnerability values from building scale to neighbourhood scale, the urban facilities were analysed. Results showed that, 1/3 of the neighborhoods in Odunpazari are vulnerable to any possible earthquake.