Mathematical modeling for energy policy analysis

Thesis Type: Doctorate

Institution Of The Thesis: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Turkey

Approval Date: 2011

Student: BORA KAT

Supervisor: EBRU VOYVODA


As is now generally accepted, climate change and environmental degradation has largely been triggered by carbon emissions and energy modeling for policy analysis has therefore attained renewed urgency. It is important for governments to satisfy emission targets and timetables set down by international agreements without disregarding macroeconomic concerns and restrictions. In this study, we present a large-scale nonlinear optimization model that allows the analysis of macroeconomic and multi-sectoral energy policies in respect of technological and environmental options and scenarios. The model consists of a detailed representation of energy activities and disaggregates the rest of the economy into five main sectors. Economy-wide solutions are obtained by computing a utility maximizing aggregate consumption bundle on the part of a representative household. Intersectoral and foreign transaction balances are maintained using a modified accounting matrix. The model also computes the impact on macroeconomic variables of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission strategies and abatement schemes. As such the model is capable of producing solutions that can be used to benchmark regulatory instruments and policies. Several scenarios are presented for the case of Turkey in which the impact of a nuclear power programme and power generation coupled with carbon-capture-and-storage schemes are investigated as well as setting quotas on total and sectoral GHG emissions.