A Study on the Reliability-based Safety Analysis of Hardfill Dams

Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Middle East Technical University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Turkey

Approval Date: 2010

Thesis Language: English

Student: Sülen Kitapçıgil

Supervisor: Ali Melih Yanmaz


Dams are important large structures providing vital benefits to human life. These strategic structures are necessary in order to supply water and energy and to control floods. Moreover, dams have important roles in regional development and national economy. Thus, the design of dams deserves rigorous studies. Deterministic approach may be acceptable for design of dams and may satisfy safety requirements if large safety factors are used. However, such an approach will not be cost-effective in economic terms. High safety factors utilized in deterministic approaches necessitates large dimensions. One remedy for this overestimation is integrating statistical information and techniques, such as Monte-Carlo simulations into the analysis and design of dams. Probabilistic approaches may result in more economical and reasonable designs. CADAM is a software program which allows the user to analyze dams using Monte-Carlo simulation technique. Uncertainties associated with tensile strength, peak cohesion, peak friction coefficient, normal upstream reservoir elevation, drain efficiency and horizontal peak ground acceleration are incorporated into stability and stress analysis using Monte-Carlo simulations. In this thesis, utilization of CADAM software is demonstrated on a case study. Cindere dam is evaluated in terms of structural safety