EXPLORATION OF BLACK SWANS AND THEIR IMPACTS ON CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES: THE CASE OF ARAB SPRING


Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Turkey

Approval Date: 2018

Student: MUHAMMED BOZTEMUR

Co-Supervisor: MUSTAFA TALAT BİRGÖNÜL, İREM DİKMEN TOKER

Abstract:

Surprising extreme events which are described as “Black Swans” originate from unknowns and may cause extensive damages. This thesis explores the Black Swan events and how they may affect the construction companies based on the findings of a case study. This work also examines how the current strategies in the literature, which have been already offered for various industries, can be applied to the construction industry to improve management of the Black Swan events. Arab Spring, which can be denoted as an example of the Black Swan events in the recent history, was identified as a case study and its impacts on the construction market were investigated. As a result, this work offers some strategies to the construction companies under two main headings such as external recipes such as expert consultancy, inclusive insurance systems, government support and internal recipes including strategies and perspectives such as pessimistic viewpoint and avoidance behaviors. Findings of this study can be used by the construction professionals to develop effective strategies against Black Swans and have a potential to fill the gap in the construction management literature on black swan events.