Reliability-based analysis of time-dependent scouring at bridge abutments

Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Middle East Technical University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Turkey

Approval Date: 2009

Thesis Language: English

Student: Sibel Kerpiççii Kara



Deterministic scour prediction equations for bridge abutments do not involve uncertainties coming from scouring parameters and they only consider effects of hydraulic parameters. However, in order to safely design bridge abutments, treatment of these uncertainties and evaluation of possible risks are required. Two artificial neural network (ANN) models are constructed to describe scouring phenomenon using the parameters of two different equations. The equation to be used in the reliability analysis is then determined according to ANN modeling results. To conduct reliability analysis, Monte Carlo simulation technique is used in which different distributions and coefficients of variations are used for random variables to examine their effects on reliability. It is observed that probability distributions of governing variables have no impact on reliability. However, coefficients of variations of these variables influence reliability.