Cash flow analysis of construction projects using fuzzy set theory


Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Middle East Technical University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Turkey

Approval Date: 2010

Thesis Language: English

Student: Serhat Melik

Supervisor: RİFAT SÖNMEZ

Abstract:

Construction industry is a one of the most risky sectors due to high level of uncertainties included in the nature of the construction projects. Although there are many reasons, the deficiency of cash is one of the main factors threatening the success of the construction projects and causing business failures. Therefore, an appropriate cash planning technique is necessary for adequate cost control and efficient cash management while considering the risks and uncertainties of the construction projects. The main objective of this thesis is to develop a realistic, reliable and cost-schedule integrated cash flow modeling technique by using fuzzy set theory for including the uncertainties in project cost and schedule resulting from complex and ambiguous nature of construction works. The linguistic expressions are used for utilizing from human judgment and approximate reasoning ability of users for reflecting their experience into the model to create cash flow scenarios. The uncertain cost and duration estimates gathered from experts are inserted in the model as fuzzy numbers. The model provides the user different net cash flow scenarios with fuzzy formats that are beneficial for foreseeing possible cost and schedule threats to the project during the tender stage. The model is generated in Microsoft Excel 2007 using Visual Basic for applications and the model is applied to a case example.