Product and channel prediction for direct marketing in banking sector


Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Computer Engineering, Turkey

Approval Date: 2017

Student: MERVE MITIK

Co-Supervisor: PINAR KARAGÖZ, İSMAİL HAKKI TOROSLU

Abstract:

Direct marketing is an advertisement method in which customers are directly informed for product offers through one-to-one communication channels. With the advancements in technology, customer databases of businesses began to grow well, therefore, detecting the needs of each customer and offering the optimal product becomes harder. Large customer dataset needs to be analyzed to make the best product offerings to the potential customers over the most proper channels and to increase the return rate of a marketing campaign. However, this goal is not very easy to accomplish, since, negative returns in the dataset usually outnumber the positive ones. Imbalanced datasets cause data mining algorithms reveal poor performance. This thesis studies the similar problem for bank product marketing. Two data mining solutions are proposed, partitioning based method and model based method for bank product and channel prediction. First proposed approach depends on unsupervised learning method, and uses clustering to predict product and channel for new customers. Second one presents a hybrid approach with unsupervised and supervised learning methods, which first constructs a classification model to detect if the customer is buyer or non-buyer and then clusters customers for product and communication channel offers. Experimental analysis on real life banking campaign dataset shows promising results.