Application of sleuth model in Antalya

Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Turkey

Approval Date: 2006




In this study, an urban growth model is used to simulate the urban growth in 2025 in the Antalya Metropolitan Area. It is the fastest growing metropolis in Turkey with a population growth of 41,79‰, although Turkey’s growth is 18,28‰ for the last decade. An Urban Growth Model (SLEUTH, Version 3.0) is calibrated with cartographic data. The prediction is based on the archived data trends of the years of the 1987, 1996, and 2002 images, which are extracted from Landsat Thematic Mapper and Enhanced Thematic Mapper satellite images and the aerial photographs acquired in 1992 and the data are prepared to insert them as input into the model. The urban extent is obtained through supervised classification of the satellite images and visual interpretation of aerial photographs. The model calibration, where a predetermined order of stepping through the “coefficient space” is used is performed in order to determine the best fit values for the five growth control parameters including the coefficients of diffusion, breed and spread, slope and road gravity with the historical urban extent data. The development trend in Antalya is simulated by slowing down growth by taking into consideration the road development and environmental protection. After the simulation for a period of 23 years, 9824 ha increased in urban areas is obtained for 2025.