GIS based seismic hazard mapping of Turkey


Thesis Type: Doctorate

Institution Of The Thesis: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Turkey

Approval Date: 2010

Student: ALİ ANIL YUNATCI

Supervisor: KEMAL ÖNDER ÇETİN

Abstract:

Efficiency of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis mainly depends on the individual successes of its complementing components; such as source characterization and ground motion intensity prediction. This study contributes to major components of the seismic hazard workflow including magnitude – rupture dimension scaling relationships, and ground motion intensity prediction. The study includes revised independent models for predicting rupture dimensions in shallow crustal zones, accompanied by proposals for geometrically compatible rupture area-length-width models which satisfy the rectangular rupture geometry assumption. Second main part of the study focuses on developing a new ground motion prediction model using data from Turkish strong ground motion database. The series of efforts include, i) compilation and processing of a strong motion dataset, ii) quantifying parameter uncertainties of predictive parameters such as magnitude and source to site distance; and predicted accelerations due to uncertainty in site conditions and response, as well as uncertainty due to random orientation of the sensor, iii) developing a ground response model as a continuous function of peak ground acceleration and shear wave velocity, and finally, iv) removing bias in predictions due to uneven sampling of the dataset. Auxiliary components of the study include a systematic approach to source characterization problem, with products ranging from description of systematically idealized and documented seismogenic faults in Anatolia, to delineation, magnitude-recurrence parameterization, and selection of maximum magnitude earthquakes. Last stage of the study covers the development of a custom computer code for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment which meets the demands of modern state of practice.