Development of an activity based risk assessment tool using integrated duration – cost influence network


Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Turkey

Approval Date: 2009

Student: AHMET HAMDİ ÖZER

Co-Supervisor: İREM DİKMEN TOKER, MUSTAFA TALAT BİRGÖNÜL

Abstract:

As the construction sector is becoming more competitive in recent years, it has become more important to estimate the duration and cost of the construction projects and to calculate the risks’ effects correctly. The aim of this thesis is to estimate the duration and cost of construction projects accurately using an activity based risk assessment method which is based on the integrated duration – cost influence network diagram model proposed by Tah and Poh (2006). Within the context of this thesis, a web based risk assessment tool using the integrated duration – cost influence network at an activity level is developed to estimate the possible cost overrun and delay in construction projects. Risk breakdown structure for construction projects is created which enables the evaluation of risk effects at an activity level. The developed tool uses Monte Carlo Simulation Technique and Risk Rating Method. The results of the developed tool are compared with those of traditional methods and the reliability of the developed tool is validated.