Neural network and regression models to decide whether or not to bid for a tender in offshore petroleum platform fabrication industry


Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Middle East Technical University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Turkey

Approval Date: 2009

Thesis Language: English

Student: Burak Sözgen

Supervisor: RİFAT SÖNMEZ

Abstract:

In this thesis, three methods are presented to model the decision process of whether or not to bid for a tender in offshore petroleum platform fabrication. A sample data and the assessment based on this data are gathered from an offshore petroleum platform fabrication company and this information is analyzed to understand the significant parameters in the industry. The alternative methods, “Regression Analysis”, “Neural Network Method” and “Fuzzy Neural Network Method”, are used for modeling of the bidding decision process. The regression analysis examines the data statistically where the neural network method and fuzzy neural network method are based on artificial intelligence. The models are developed using the bidding data compiled from the offshore petroleum platform fabrication projects. In order to compare the prediction performance of these methods “Cross Validation Method” is utilized. The models developed in this study are compared with the bidding decision method used by the company. The results of the analyses show that regression analysis and neural network method manage to have a prediction performance of 80% and fuzzy neural network has a prediction performance of 77,5% whereas the method used by the company has a prediction performance of 47,5%. The results reveal that the suggested models achieve significant improvement over the existing method for making the correct bidding decision.