ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES IN CLIMATE INDICES OF THE MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE REGION OF TURKEY


Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Middle East Technical University, Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences, Turkey

Approval Date: 2020

Thesis Language: English

Student: İZEM ÇETİNKAYA

Supervisor: İsmail Yücel

Abstract:

As a consequence of climate change, frequency and intensity changes in extreme weather events have occurred. One of the most vulnerable regions of the world that is affected by the climate change is the Mediterranean region. Turkey as a Mediterranean country has a great importance to investigate the changes in climate behavior. 57 stations from Mediterranean climate region of Turkey have been selected as the study area for this thesis. This study aims to assess the climate indices that carry the valuable information about the climate of a region and detect trends and anomalies in those climate indices, precipitation and temperature patterns. 8 different General Circulation Model/Regional Climate Model couplings obtained from CORDEX project have been used in this study to make predictions on the period of 2011-2050. To evaluate the model performance and determine the most appropriate model, observed data and model data have been compared for the reference period 1971-2005. Five groups of climate indices which are percentilebased indices, absolute indices, threshold indices, duration indices and other indices have been calculated. The trends in climate indices, precipitation and temperature have been determined by applying the Mann-Kendall trend test. According to the results of the analyses, there are significant warming trend in temperature and temperature-related indices through the whole region and mixed pattern in precipitation and related indices