Role of investment shocks in explaining business cycles in Turkey


Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Orta Doğu Teknik Üniversitesi, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, Turkey

Approval Date: 2012

Student: CANAN YÜKSEL

Supervisor: EBRU VOYVODA

Abstract:

This thesis aims to understand the sources of business cycles observed in Turkish economy. In particular the thesis investigates the role of investment shocks in explaining fluctuations in output. For this purpose a small open economy DSGE model is estimated on Turkish data for 2002-2011 period by Bayesian methods. Variance decomposition analysis shows that permanent technology shock is the key driving force of business cycles in Turkish economy and the role of investment shock is less spelled.