Development of an expert system for the quantification of fault rates in traffic accidents


Thesis Type: Postgraduate

Institution Of The Thesis: Middle East Technical University, Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Turkey

Approval Date: 2010

Thesis Language: English

Student: Eren Cangul

Principal Supervisor (For Co-Supervisor Theses): Mustafa Talat Birgönül

Co-Supervisor: Soner Osman Acar

Abstract:

Traffic accidents which damage the safety of human beings are one of the most important problems due to their material losses and effects to human health. Although continuous improvements are made by the governments; losses of traffic accidents are still a significant issue all over the world. The usual studies realized so far are generally related with the accident prevention models. However, there has not been much research done concerning the situation after the traffic accidents happen. After occurrence of traffic accidents, determination of fault rates for each party involved in the accident is urgently important. The aim of this study is to develop an expert system that uses the knowledge of experts for determination of fault rates in traffic accidents. For this purpose, a detailed literature survey was performed to define the determinants influencing the fault rates of each party. In addition, required data, that is, expert-witness reports were taken from academicians. Classification of these data was done and critical factors affecting fault rates were determined. In light of the defined factors, flowcharts were developed for each type of traffic accident. Moreover questionnaire submitted to experts, was prepared to acquire knowledge of experts. The critical factors affecting fault rates were assessed with a quantitative way in questionnaire. The proposed Traffic Accident Expert System (TAES) is on the basis of the knowledge of experts. Quantification of fault rates can change from one expert to another. An expert system such as the one this thesis will propose will prevent these contradictions. In addition, the expert system quantifies fault rates faster and more consistent as well.